Florida voters will pick nominees for a Senate seat that seems to have moved onto the battlefield and decide whether one of the top antagonists to a former House speaker gets the nomination for another term.

Here are five things to watch in the Sunshine State primaries on Tuesday:

Gaetz facing McCarthy wrath

Rep. Matt Gaetz is holding what he’s calling a “Patriot Rally Tour” ahead of Tuesday’s Republican primary in Florida’s 1st District, bringing supporters like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, to campaign with him along the northern Gulf Coast. 

Gaetz, an ardent supporter of former President Donald Trump who won his 2022 primary by 45 percentage points, is working to counter $3.1 million in outside money spent either against him or for challenger Aaron Dimmock, who has the backing of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and his political network. 

Outside groups have spent just $180,000 to support Gaetz, but his role as one of the faces of the pro-Trump movement has helped him raise money on his own. Through July 31, his campaign had spent $5.1 million. Dimmock’s campaign has only raised $348,000 so far, including $11,000 from the candidate himself, and had just $158,000 on hand on July 31.

Gaetz led the successful effort to oust McCarthy as speaker, which resulted in weeks last year where House Republicans struggled to pick a new leader before eventually rallying behind Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

Defeating Dimmock is probably the only real challenge Gaetz faces this year. Democrat Jennifer Valimont, who has no primary opponent, had just $134,000 in her account on July 31. The race in November is rated Solid Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.

Scott may be in competitive race

Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is the likely Democratic nominee to take on incumbent Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., in a race that has recently begun to look more competitive.

Mucarsel-Powell had more money in her account on July 31, $4.4 million, than Scott, who had $3.9 million. She had also raised $14.4 million from donors — including $6.7 million from those giving $200 or less — but Scott has already put $13.7 million of his own money into the campaign. In the 2018 race, in which Scott barely ousted Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, he put $63.6 million into the race from his own pocket. 

Looking past the voters in November, Scott has already announced his run for Senate Republican leader in the next Congress. Of the three current contenders to succeed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., as the conference’s leader, Scott is the only one who is on the ballot this year.

Mucarsel-Powell, who was ousted from the House in 2020 by Republican Carlos Gimenez, is heavily favored in the Democratic primary. But she must get past entrepreneur Stanley Campbell, who has won the endorsement of the state AFL-CIO and put $1 million of his own money into the race. Mucarsel-Powell has plenty of union endorsements of her own, including the Florida SEIU and the Communications Workers of America.

For most of the cycle, the Senate race has been on the edge of the battlefield given how the state has trended significantly more Republican since Scott ousted Nelson by less than 1 point. A Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research USA poll released Wednesday, however, had Scott up by 4 percentage points.

Do voters back Posey-picked successor?

Republican Rep. Bill Posey announced his planned retirement at the last possible moment, effectively handing the reins for the reliably Republican 8th District seat to former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos. He was able to file paperwork to run just before the deadline and before other potential contenders could have gotten into the race.

Haridopolos has the endorsements of both Trump and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, along with Posey and others. He has raised $1.2 million through July 31, including $167,000 from PACs. By comparison, rival Joseph Babits self-funded $151,000 of the $156,000 he has raised, while opponent John Hearton’s $325,000 in total receipts includes $190,000 from the candidate’s personal funds.

Developer vies to challenge to Soto

Thomas Chalifoux, a commercial real estate developer and retired Army colonel, has put in $2 million of his own money and won the primary endorsement of the Orlando Sentinel in the race for the Republican nomination to take on to take on Democratic Rep. Darren Soto in Florida’s 9th District.  

Soto’s seat was seen as more competitive earlier in the cycle. It appeared on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s list of “offensive pickup opportunities” in March 2023, but in April of this year Inside Elections changed its rating from Likely to Solid Democratic.

The other candidates in the Republican field are John Quiñones, a former Florida state representative with endorsements from Reps. Posey, Aaron Bean and Carlos Gimenez, and Jose Castillo, a Disney World resort manager.

Ethics probe only challenge facing Cherfilus-McCormick

Not only is one Democrat running unopposed for the nomination in the Broward County-based 20th District, there’s no Republican running at all.

Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who is unopposed, is the subject of an ongoing House Ethics Committee probe of her 2022 special election campaign for the late Rep. Alcee L. Hastings’ seat.

Cherfilus-McCormick had only $28,000 in her campaign account at the end of last month, and she was using funds from donors to repay personal loans from the 2022 cycle.